2022 Academy Awards – Predictions

Presumed Oscar frontrunners Power of the Dog, CODA, and Belfast battling it out for Best Picture

The 94th annual Academy Awards ceremony is this Sunday night, and for once many of the eventual winners are shockingly difficult to predict. But as close as several of the races in many of the top categories appear to be — most notably Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Original Screenplay — that’s nothing compared to the various controversies the producers of this year’s broadcast have inadvertently managed to gin up.

First, it was announced that eight categories — Editing, Sound, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Documentary Short, Animated Short, and Live Action Short — will all be revealed in the hour before the live broadcast is set to begin at 5 p.m. Pacific, with snippets of each acceptance speech edited into the show later on. Social media understandably went nuts over this, with the hashtag #PresentAll23 trending ever since, while Best Actress nominee Jessica Chastain has already stated she’ll refrain from walking the Oscar red carpet so she can be seated in the auditorium to support her The Eyes of Tammy Faye hair and makeup team.

There have been a handful of disasters since, but the most notable one involves rising West Side Story star Rachel Zegler. After a fan posted about their excitement at seeing what Zegler was going to wear to the ceremony, the actor revealed on Instagram she wasn’t even invited to attend. (She has since been invited as a presenter.)

On the same day her post went viral, the Academy announced its final set of presenters for the broadcast, a list that included non-Academy members Tony Hawk, Kelly Slater, Shaun White, and DJ Khaled. To say the reactions haven’t been kind would be an obvious understatement.

Lost in all of this is that it’s arguably the most competitive Oscar race in years. Best Picture is a legitimate toss-up: half of the ten nominees have a path to victory. Best Actress is a coin flip. Best Original Screenplay is a complete unknown. Best Animated Film? Best Editing? Best Cinematography? Best Original Score? While there are legitimate frontrunners in each category, it’s equally likely one or all of those will feature a jaw-dropping upset.

What do we know? Best Director will go to a woman for the second time in a row and the third century: Jane Campion. As the only two-time female nominee in this category, a win for her is as close to a certainty as there is.

Ariana DeBose is a lock for Best Supporting Actress for West Side Story — there’s zero question about that. Will Smith will likely snag Best Actor for King Richard, while Troy Kotsur should win Best Supporting Actor for his work in CODA. Dune is almost certain to dominate the majority of the technical categories, and it’s hard not to believe Cruella will be strutting down the Best Costume Design catwalk, Oscar in hand.

As for the rest? While I’m going to make my predictions, I can’t say I trust the majority of them. Best Picture is an absolute crapshoot: while I’m leaning toward The Power of the Dog, it’s hard not to shake the feeling that CODA, King Richard, Belfast, West Side Story, or even Don’t Look Up could pull off an upset.

And that Best Actress race? My heart is still firmly behind Kristin Stewart and her mesmerizing Spencer performance, but my head says this is Chastain’s Oscar to lose, though Nicole Kidman may pull off an upset for her work as Lucille Ball in Being the Ricardos.

Here are my predictions for the 94th annual Academy Awards in all 23 categories. If I get more than 16 of them correct this year, I’ll be legitimately surprised.

BEST PICTURE
Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Prediction: The Power of the Dog

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Prediction: Campion

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!), Will Smith (King Richard), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Prediction: Smith

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Oliva Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Prediction: Chastain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Prediction: Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Prediction: DeBose

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Worst Person in the World
Prediction: Belfast

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
Prediction: CODA

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Worst Person in the World
Prediction: Drive My Car

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
Prediction: The Power of the Dog

BEST EDITING
Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…BOOM!
Prediction: Dune

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
Prediction: Nightmare Alley

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
Prediction: Cruella

BEST SOUND
Belfast, Dune, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story
Prediction: Dune

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America, Cruella, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up, Dune, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, The Power of the Dog
Prediction: Encanto

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Down to Joy” (Belfast), “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto), “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days), “Be Alive” (King Richard), “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
Prediction: “Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune, Free Guy, No Time to Die, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Prediction: Dune

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension, Attica, Flee, Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised), Writing with Fire
Prediction: Flee

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies
Prediction: The Queen of Basketball

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon
Prediction: Encanto

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Ant, Beast, Boxballet, Robin Robin, The Windshield Wiper
Prediction: The Windshield Wiper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, The Dress, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold
Prediction: The Long Goodbye

– Portions of this feature reprinted courtesy of the SGN in Seattle